India’s Journey from Crisis to Confidence

A buyer confidence is growing India and accordingly domestic business and exports is growing with piling forex reserve. In the row, recently; Shaktikanta Das, Governor, Reserve Bank of India delivered speech at Davos, Switzerland and presented India’s outlook for 2024-25.

Talking about Macroeconomic Stability point of view, he said; amidst an uncertain and challenging global macroeconomic environment, the Indian economy presents a picture of confidence, positivity and optimism. Recent growth outturns have surprised most forecasts on the upside.

After clocking real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.2 per cent in 2022-23, real GDP is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent during 2023-24 according to the latest release by the National Statistical Office (NSO). With strong domestic demand conditions, India remains the fastest growing major economy and is now the fifth largest economy in the world. In fact, in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, India is already the third largest economy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that India’s contribution to world growth will rise from the current 16 per cent to 18 per cent by 2028.

Turning to the outlook on inflation and growth for the next financial year (2024-25), our research teams are in the process of making a comprehensive assessment for our forthcoming February 2024 monetary policy. At this stage, our expectation is that the CPI inflation will average around 4.5 per cent in FY 2024-25. As regards growth, my sense is that the GDP growth in India will touch 7 per cent in FY 2024-25. I am saying this on the basis of strong momentum of economic activity seen in India. Consequently, growth would be 7 per cent and above for four consecutive years starting from FY 2021-22.

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