2024 forecast suggests platinum market deficit

The platinum market is expected to record a deficit of 353 koz in 2024. Notwithstanding lower platinum demand, which stems from softer investment demand, lower, but historically elevated, industrial demand, and rising total platinum supply, the deficit is still represents 5% of 2024 platinum demand.

Platinum supply is expected to increase by 3% to 7,310 koz in 2024, although remaining constrained. Mining supply growth of 2% is forecast but remains challenged as electricity shortages remain a risk. Furthermore, miners are publicly discussing the need to restructure or even close economically unsustainable operations following the rapid and significant decline in the PGM basket price.

Recycling supply should increase by 7% as availability of end-of-life vehicles increases. Automotive demand is forecast to record further, albeit modest, growth in 2024 and reaching 3,312 koz, as platinum for palladium substitution is forecast to reach 700 koz up from 620 koz in 2023. Industrial demand is forecast to decrease by 11% from record levels in 2023, to 2,367 koz, although demand remains 14% higher than its average since 2013. A modest 3% jewellery demand recovery is expected as the cost-of-living crisis abates. Investment demand is forecast to be 82 koz, led by disinvestment in ETFs and sellbacks from Japanese bar & coin investors.

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