Recently Silver Institute updated the Global Silver demand Trend 2023 said, Silver Market Expected to Register another Sizeable Structural Deficit.
In a key highlights from their presentation said, globally, total silver demand is forecast to ease by 10% to reach 1.14 billion ounces in 2023. Gains in industrial applications will be offset by losses in all other key segments. Despite the fall, total demand remains elevated by historical standards, making the 2023 figure the second highest in Metals Focus’ data series.
Silver jewelry and silverware demand is set to fall by 22% and 47%, respectively, to 182 Moz and 39 Moz this year. For both, losses are led by India, where full-year demand is expected to normalize after a surge in 2022. Excluding India, global jewelry demand is expected to edge slightly higher in 2023, while silverware will fall by a notably smaller 12%.
Physical investment in 2023 is projected to fall by 21% to a three-year low of 263 Moz. While most markets have seen weaker volumes, losses have been concentrated in India and Germany. In India, record high local prices both deterred new investor purchases and led to profit taking, resulting in a 46% decline.
In Germany, investor sentiment was hit hard by the VAT hike to some silver coins at the start of 2023. US investment has also turned lower, but only modestly, thanks to buoyant safe haven demand following the regional banking crisis. The resilience of the US market helps explain why the global total stays historically high.
Overall, despite weaker demand and a slight drop in total supply, the global silver market is forecast to see another sizeable physical deficit in 2023, marking the third consecutive year of an annual deficit. At 140 Moz, this will be 45% lower than 2022’s all-time high, but this is still elevated by historical standards. Just as important, Metals Focus believes the deficit will persist in the silver market for the foreseeable future.
Metals Focus expects the average silver price to increase by 6% year-on-year to $23.10 this year. Through November 7, prices have grown by 8% year-on-year. Going forward, Metals Focus are firmly in the ‘higher for longer’ camp, as far as US interest rate expectations are concerned. This backdrop is not favorable for zero-yielding assets such as silver. The white metal’s investment appeal will also be hurt by poor confidence in industrial commodities due to a slowing Chinese economy. With this in mind, Metals Focus maintains a cautious outlook for the silver price for now and for much of 2024.